By Jeff Logan
Carbon dioxide emissions from China might pass those from the United States as early as 2009, according to the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2006, released earlier this month by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris. The recent forecast moves up by over a decade the agency's previous forecast of China's emergence as the nation with the greatest emissions, a position currently held by the United States. The revision is based on the 13 percent-a-year average expansion in Chinese coal use since 2003.
China's robust economic growth is largely responsible for the surge in coal use. China now burns over 2 billion tons per year, nearly twice the level of the U.S. Nonetheless, total Chinese energy use is currently one-third less than in the U.S. because of greater U.S. dependence on oil, gas, and nuclear.
Statistical uncertainties have now called into question the reliability of Chinese data. Energy use appeared to decline dramatically in the late 1990s, while the more recent surge appears to "conveniently" correct it [1] (see below). To craft effective policy addressing global climate change, energy security, and environmental pollution, policymakers need a better understanding of the long-term relationship between energy use and economic growth, especially in China, so they can make better projections and thus better decisions.
Between 1980 and 2000, China quadrupled its gross domestic product but only doubled its energy demand, which saved China hundreds of millions of tons of coal combustion.
But since 2002, coal use has risen much faster than gross domestic product (GDP). In response to the surge in energy growth, China has set the extremely ambitious target of reducing energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) by 20 percent over the next 5 years. Initial results for 2006 are not promising, although Chinese efforts to "mobilize the masses" rarely fail publicly. China faces an enormous number of social, political, economic, and environmental challenges, and continued strong economic growth is far from guaranteed.
Current and Historical Emissions
Regardless of current emissions in the U.S. and China, it will take many decades for China to surpass the U.S. in cumulative emissions, or total emissions over time. For example, using the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. historical and projected emissions over the period 1920-2025 are nearly twice those of China. Cumulative emissions matter for two reasons. First, because CO2 stays in the atmosphere for over 100 years, emissions a few decades ago matter just as much as emissions today. Second, developing countries, including China, have been arguing that the higher cumulative emissions in developed countries compared to developing countries mean that developed countries have contributed more to global warming over time, and thus bear greater responsibility for solving it.
Footnote
1. The reported decline in energy use in China during the mid to late 1990s is discussed in Sinton, Jonathan E. and Fridley, David G., 2000, "What goes up: Recent Trends in China’s Energy Consumption," Energy Policy, 28(10): 671-687; and Logan, Jeffrey, 2001, "Diverging energy and economic growth in China: Where has all the coal gone?" Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, 11(1):1-13.
The content of this article has been repurposed for EarthTrends. The original version of this article appeared on the WRI homepage.
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