This week in Heiligendamm, Germany, leaders from the United States agreed to "seriously consider" a plan to cut global carbon emissions to half of their 1990 levels by 2050. The announcement was made at the annual G8 Summit , which is composed of eight of the world's richest and most polluting countries (US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, Russian). While failing to set mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the agreement could lay the groundwork for a unified world response to climate change. Even this modest step, however, did not come without tough political wrangling. This week's announcement marks the first time that the US has agreed to the goal of developing a new global accord on climate change by 2009 to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol.

The Agreement

Originally, the Bush administration threatened to reject most of the German-sponsored measure. Persistent lobbying by Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel overcame most American resistance, but she was unable to achieve implementation of binding emissions restrictions for G8 nations. Given the large rift over climate change that has existed between the US and Europe, however, Merkel and her allies still deemed the summit a success.

Source: EarthTrends 2007, using data from the International Energy Agency

At Bush's insistence, the new plan also invites so-called "G5 countries" to set their own national emissions reductions goals. The G5 is composed of Mexico, Brazil, India, South Africa, and China, which together produce almost 50% of total global carbon emissions. The plan will call on these nations to make unspecified emissions 'commitments', but will not require specific reductions targets, for fear of harming economic growth.

Source: EarthTrends 2007, using data from the International Energy Agency

Moving Forward

Some proponents of emissions regulations were heartened by the progress made at the summit. But other environmental groups and climate change experts expressed disappointment over the agreement, noting that lack of mandatory cuts or any other specific commitments make it little more than political rhetoric.

In the US, the debate over climate change will now likely return to Washington, where the Democratically-controlled Congress is mulling over various legislative proposals to cap US emissions. The graph below illustrates the many plans for addressing climate change--as well as the uncertain future of this global problem.

Source: WRI 2007

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