Until recently, most research and policy initiatives related to climate change have focused on ways in which societies can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and prevent the worst effects of global warming. Current scientific evidence shows, however, that some human-induced climate change is now inevitable and is in fact already occurring. The question of which regions and groups are most vulnerable to this predicted climate flux and how they might adapt to it has thus become an important area of research, funding, and policymaking.
One of the critical insights of this new area of study, often referred to as "Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation," is that the poor--particularly those living in developing countries--will bear the heaviest burdens of a changing climate.
Conditions in the Sahel grasslands of Africa are a striking example of the dangers climate change poses to the developing world. This arid, drought-prone region lies on the southern edge of the Sahara Desert and is home to millions of pastoralists who depend on cattle herds and subsistence farming for survival. In recent decades, the Sahel's climate has become even drier, resulting in repeated droughts and the spread of the desert 50 to 200 km farther south (UNEP, 2007). These changes have placed large stresses on countries such as Sudan, which are ill-equipped to deal with it. The subsequent social and economic instability has helped fuel violent conflicts resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of refugees (UNEP 2007).
The fact that the groups least able to deal with climate change will be those most affected by it presents complex socioeconomic, environmental, and political challenges. However, these challenges also present a unique opportunity for joining climate change efforts with larger development initiatives in order to foster more prosperous and sustainable societies throughout the developing world.
Gauging Vulnerability to Climate Change
According to the latest report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming is likely to have a number of adverse effects on human and natural systems, including:
- increased frequency and intensity of droughts;
- flooding as a result of higher rainfalls, increased snowmelts, and rising sea levels;
- declines in food production;
- increased disease;
- more extreme weather; and
- loss of biodiversity.
While this list is alarming, scientists stress that negative impacts will not occur everywhere. Gauging which societies are vulnerable, and which are not, requires examining two interrelated factors, examined in more detail below: a society’s exposure to the effects of climate change, and its capacity to adapt to these effects (Burton et al, 2006).
- Exposure: Exposure is partially determined by environmental factors, such as whether a society or group resides in a flood-prone area or in a region where drinking water is scarce. Level of exposure also takes into account if large populations or valuable infrastructure are located in these environmentally sensitive areas; the more a country stands to lose from climate-related problems, the greater their exposure.
- Adaptive Capacity: A group’s adaptive capacity gauges its ability to react to and deal with climate change, which could include building levies to combat flooding or irrigation systems to deal with drought. Adaptive capacity relates closely to a society's "level of wealth, education, institutional strength, and access to technology"; (Burton et al, 2006). A useful, though imperfect, proxy for adaptive capacity is a country's level of development. In general, a more developed nation will be better equipped to deal with the vagaries of climate change than its poorer counterparts.
Figure 1: Level of Vulnerability to Climate Change
Source: EarthTrends, 2007.
Developing Countries Are Highly Vulnerable to Climate Change
The combination of high exposure and low adaptive capacity occurs most commonly in developing countries, making them highly vulnerable to climate change (see Figure 1). A variety of interrelated factors drive this vulnerability.
Many developing countries are located in lower latitudes, where higher average temperatures lead to greater chance of droughts, floods, and outbreaks of infectious and waterborne diseases. Citizens of developing countries also tend to have a greater reliance on climate-sensitive natural resources such as forests, agricultural lands, and fisheries for subsistence or employment. In addition, disadvantaged groups tend to live and work in environmentally exposed areas, such as flood-prone river plains, unproductive agricultural lands, or steep slopes susceptible to mudslides. Stresses like HIV/AIDS, poverty and inequality, and political instability exacerbate each of the factors above by making the negative impacts of climate change more severe and weakening a group’s ability to adapt.
Figure 2 and Figure 3 illustrate the inordinate risks that developing countries face for two types of
natural disasters--droughts and floods--under current climactic conditions.
Figure 2: Global Distribution of Drought-Related Mortality Risk
Source: Center for Hazards and Risk Research at Columbia University, 2005. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis.
Figure 3: Global Distribution of Flood-Related Mortality Risk
Source: Center for Hazards and Risk Research at Columbia University, 2005. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis.
Predicting Future Risk
Scientists expect future climate change to increase the risks posed by weather-related natural disasters like droughts and floods. Again, most of this risk will fall on developing country poor.
The following map, for example, illustrates the potential impacts of a 0.5 or 1 meter sea level rise in
the Nile Delta, which could impact as many as 6 million people and 4,500 square kilometers of land.
Figure 4: Potential Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Nile Delta
Source: Adapted from UNEP/GRIDA-Arendal
Climate change has the potential to have similarly drastic effects on world food production. The graphs below show world cereal production under three different climate change scenarios and varying levels of adaptation. In nearly all scenarios, the majority of predicted production declines will occur in developing countries.
Figure 5: Predicted Climate-Related Change in Cereal Production
Source: UNEP/GRIDA-Arendal
Helping the Poor Adapt
Developing nations’ high levels of exposure and poor adaptive capacity will make it difficult for them to respond to climate change. If they are to cope, a coordinated global effort is necessary. Wealthier countries, in particular, must work to address climate change vulnerability with funding, technologies, and coordination that will strengthen climate change adaptation efforts. The mandate to assist developing nations in these efforts carries particular ethical force because the global poor are the unintended victims of developed countries’ past energy consumption.
A number of international projects that strive to help local communities and national governments respond to climate change have already been launched. Examples include a World Bank-funded program providing drought insurance to farmers in Malawi and efforts to construct coastal defense systems on the Maldives islands.
Nevertheless, funding for adaptation efforts is still insufficient. The following table lists developed country pledges to international funds specifically designed for climate adaptation projects. As of April 2007, these pledges totaled less than $200 million, and an even smaller amount has actually been allocated and disbursed. (Note that in addition to the low pledge levels, the United States, Japan and Australia have not yet contributed to these specialized funds).
These figures are dwarfed by the amounts already being spent on adaptation projects in developed nations,
including a $2.2 billion flood protection scheme in the Netherlands and a $1.3 billion project to deal with
water scarcity and extreme weather in Australia (Oxfam,
2007).
Figure 6: Pledges in Millions of USD$ to International Adaptation Funds as of April 2007
Source: Adapted from Oxfam 2007, Adapting to Climate Change: What's Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay.
Integrating Adaptation and Development
Given the large costs of adaptation and the shortfalls in funding, a number of complementary strategies are required. One of the most direct and cost-effective approaches entails adding vulnerability and adaptation considerations to existing development aid projects, such as infrastructure development or public health initiatives. (Cosbey et al, 2005).
By conducting “climate risk assessments” before any new projects begin, development plans can be “climate-proofed.” A climate risk assessment preceding construction of a bridge, for example, would ensure that it could withstand severe weather brought on by climate change.
Larger sustainable development efforts can also incorporate climate proofing. The IPCC notes that vulnerability depends not only on climate change itself but on countries’ ability to use their natural resources more wisely, be more energy efficient, pollute less, and improve the health and well-being of their citizens (IPCC 2007). As such, combining climate adaptation and sustainable development projects could create a virtuous cycle of social progress, leading to more prosperous and more environmentally friendly societies that are also insulated from the impacts of climate flux.
Global society currently has a window of opportunity to help vulnerable groups adapt to climate change (Oxfam 2007). Urgent action before this window disappears will ensure that the costs of adaptation – in terms of both economics and human wellbeing – do not become insurmountable.
The World Resources Institute recently launched the Climate "Vulnerability and Adaptation" Project. Visit the website for more information.
Related Links:
IPCC Working Group II – Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group
EarthTrends
EarthTrends Feature: Climate Protection in a Disparate World
Earth Trends Feature: Protecting Ecosystems in a Changing World
Map of Carbon Emissions per capita
Climate-Related information in EarthTrends Searchable Database
WRI Publication: Scaling Up: Global Technology Deployment to Stabilize Emissions
