For the first time, a climate change model has drawn direct links between CO2 emissions and increased human mortality. The model, created by Stanford University Professor Mark Jacobson, is considered by many to be the most complex and complete atmospheric model worldwide, taking into account many feedbacks between climate change and air pollution. It estimates that for every one degree Celsius increase in global temperature caused by carbon dioxide, the world will experience upwards of 20,000 additional air pollution-related deaths per year.
Developed over the past 18 years, Jacobson's model incorporates many complex and interrelated factors, including gas chemistry, ocean processes, soil processes, and the atmospheric effects of weather patterns. The study, which will be published in Geophysical Research Letters, is the first to isolate carbon dioxide's effects from other greenhouse gases. Specifically, it determines the amounts of ozone and airborne particles (common causes of respiratory and cardiovascular disease) that result from temperature increases caused by rising carbon dioxide emissions.
Some of the most interesting results include:
- Higher temperatures due to CO2 increased the chemical rate of ozone production in urban areas.
- CO2 also increased water vapor in urban areas, boosting temperatures even more.
- Air temperatures rose more rapidly than did ground temperatures, which changed the vertical temperature profile and decreased pollution dispersion, concentrating pollution near where it formed.
- Urban areas already suffering from pollution will be affected most.
Read Jacobson's full article: "On the Causal Link between Carbon Dioxide and Air Pollution Mortality."
Top photo by mtlp via Flickr
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