Will There Be Enough Food? Food Price Crisis Triggers Questions about Global Food Security

Water Resources and Freshwater Ecosystems

Environmental Governance and Institutions

Will There Be Enough Food? Food Price Crisis Triggers Questions about Global Food Security

Submitted by Crystal Davis on Fri, 2008-04-18 14:08.

food aid in malawi While the cost of food has been rising steadily since 2000, few took notice until recently, when the problem finally reached crisis proportions. Skyrocketing world food prices--up almost 50% since last year--have triggered riots across the developing world and forced the world's largest food aid agency to announce a $500 million deficit for 2008.

Low-income countries that are net food importers have been hit hardest. Already, 37 countries--21 of which are in Africa--are in a food security crisis according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The World Bank recently announced that the current food situation could push 100 million people into deeper poverty, undoing years of progress in the fight against global poverty and hunger. Poor households spend between 60 to 80% of their income on food, compared to only 10-20% in most industrialized countries.

Assessing the Problem: Supply vs Demand

Despite several record-breaking harvests, world cereals production between 2000 and 2007 fell well short of consumption. The shortfall has forced the depletion of world grain stocks--a useful proxy for global food security--which are now at their lowest level in 25 years.

Population growth has contributed only marginally to the increasing demand for cereals, including wheat, rice and corn. Rather, growing consumption of meat and dairy products in the developing world--a consequence of higher incomes and urbanization--means that more grain is being fed to livestock. Crop use for biofuel production is growing even faster. Almost all of the increase in global maize production between 2004 and 2007 went to make corn-based ethanol in the United States. The amount of corn required to fill one gas tank with ethanol fuel could feed one person for an entire year.

Global supply has failed to keep up with demand, thereby driving prices to their current high. Some of this inflation can be attributed to short-term production shortfalls, which generally result from bad weather. But many factors driving current food prices are more lasting, and their effects are likely to be felt for several years. These include:

Rising costs of fuel
Developed country agricultural subsidies, which make it difficult for developing country farmers to compete in international markets
Lack of access to improved inputs amongst smallholder farmers in the developing world, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, which limits their ability to react to the incentives created by increased demand
Domestic policy responses to higher food prices in developing countries, such export taxes, bans, or other restrictions, which exacerbate the problem

Seeking Global Food Security: Short-Run vs Long-Run Measures

The FAO forecasts a 2.6% rise in cereal production in 2008, which would result in a record harvest of over two billion metric tons. If this prediction materializes--much depends on unpredictable weather--the current food crisis should ease somewhat. Even so, experts predict that prices will remain high at least through 2015, indicating that short-term policy interventions are necessary to combat hunger over the coming decade. These actions should include targeted safety nets for vulnerable populations, increased support for food aid agencies, as well as short-run trade policy measures, such as reducing tariffs and taxes on key staples.

Over the long-run, ensuring global food security will require greater effort. While most experts believe that the world's agro-ecosystems, coupled with improved technology, have the physical capacity to satisfy demand through the 21st century, this will not happen if current circumstances prevail. Agricultural trade barriers, environmental degradation, and the under-performance of African agriculture must all be addressed.

Furthermore, climate change threatens to exacerbate food insecurity in the world's poorest regions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that rising temperatures will decrease yields in 40 developing countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, and that three degrees of warming (Celcius) will increase the price of food by 40%. Without concerted global action to help vulnerable populations adapt to a warming climate, global hunger will not be tackled this century.

Figure 1: FAO Food Price Index: February 2007 - January 2008

food price index

Source: FAO, 2008