The relationship between economic growth and rising carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is the chicken or the egg question of the climate change debate. A growth in industry, and hence emissions, will no doubt stimulate a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Conversely, a higher GDP will often lead to a greater disposable income and higher standards of living which could manifest in more cars, more residential energy use and more consumption all of which will impact on a country's total emissions.

While determining causality between emissions and GDP remains elusive, the correlation between the two can be visualized with the aid of a plug-in program designed by Google with the help of GapMinder's data visualization tool.

Below is a motion chart showing the change in total carbon dioxide emissions and GDP for 6 countries: Brazil, China, Ghana, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Some of the more interesting trends in these countries is described, country-by-country, below the chart.

Press play to see the changes between 1960 and 2004. The size can be adjusted according to the country's population. Selecting a trail for a particular country will make it easier to track changes. Use the tabs in the top right hand corner to change between a scatter graph and bar chart view.



Key Trends:

United States:
The period between 1960-1979 saw a rapid growth in carbon dioxide emissions with an increase of 74% from 1960 levels (from 2.87M to 5M ktons). GDP also doubled in this time from 2.5 to 5.1M (million constant 2000 US$). After this period the growth in emissions was relatively more modest, while GDP continued to grow rapidly. This decoupling of emissions and economic growth marked the beginning of industrial decline in the United States, with the percentage of GDP attributable to industry falling steadily from 34.1% in 1981 to 22.2% in 2004.

United Kingdom:
Emissions in the UK have stayed relatively constant between 1960 and 2004 (in fact they have fallen by almost 4% since 1960); however, GDP has more than tripled in this period reflecting a move towards a service based economy. The percentage of GDP from industry decreased from 43.1% in 1971 to 24.1% in 2004.

China:
Between 1960 and 2004 there has been a rapid growth in both emissions and GDP with emissions increasing nearly seven-fold and GDP increasing by 17 times. China's most rapid phase of growth has been in this decade, with an emissions increase of 53% to 5.2 billion tons, between 2001 and 2004 alone. In three years, China's emissions grew 4 times more rapidly than the global average. This growth in emissions is reflective of a dependency on industry which made up more than 46% of percent of the country's GDP in 2004.

Brazil:
Brazil has seen a very steady growth in both emissions and GDP since 1960 with a 6-fold increase in both.

India:
Between 1960 and 2004, emissions have increased by a factor of 10 whilst GDP has also increased by a factor of 6.

Ghana:
Ghana has seen little change in both GDP and emissions relative to more industrialized countries. GDP has more than tripled in this period and there has been a 7-fold increase in emissions. However the levels of both were very low to start with. Ghana's low emissions are partly reflective of the fact that agriculture as opposed to manufacturing is the key industry in the country, making up more than a third of GDP.

Related EarthTrends data sets:

Total CO2 emissions
GDP: Constant US$
Percent GDP from industry
Percent GDP from services